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For Barack Obama, Iowa just keeps on giving. First they handed him a decisive victory in the Democratic caucus in January. Then at this weekend’s district conventions, they gave him a second win in which he netted another nine pledged delegates, bringing his state total to 25. And with two more rounds of voting to go—one in April and one in June—he essentially gets four headlines for the price of one.
Obama’s gain comes at the expense of John Edwards, who lost eight delegates (so much for loyalty), and Clinton, who lost one. Perhaps talking smack about the caucus process wasn’t the wisest move.
Just for perspective: Clinton netted nine delegates in Ohio. Obama’s victories in Wyoming and Mississippi erased her gains from Ohio and Texas. Now Iowa 2.0 puts him in the post-March 5 lead and brings the total pledged delegate count to 1,409 and 1,250, by NBC’s count.
So, could the same thing happen in other caucus states? Clinton won the first round of Nevada voting (despite Obama winning more delegates), but Obama appeared to make gains in some counties in the second round of voting in February. (We won’t know statewide totals until Clark County, whose convention descended into chaos, holds a redo.) Other caucus states—Kansas, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, and others—hold second rounds of voting, which could give Obama intermittent delegate bounces.
I imagine this is what the rest of the Democratic contest will look like. There won’t be a knockout blow; just a series of small victories that will slowly bleed one candidate or another—but probably one in particular—of delegates. There are still potential game-changers, like a scandal that swings the superdelegates or a lopsided solution to the Florida and Michigan debacles. But chances are the race is going to drag on painfully until one candidate gives in to the math. If Hillary thinks she hates caucuses now, wait till they’re all done voting.
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It’s not going to happen. But here’s a hypothetical scenario that, however unlikely, could make John Edwards a kingmaker.
Saturday, Iowa Democrats will vote in the state’s county conventions. It’s a lot like the caucuses last January, only on a smaller scale. At 99 locations around the state, the 13,485 delegates selected at the caucuses will gather to choose delegates for the district and state conventions, which happen in April and June. Remember that in January, Edwards took 20 percent of the vote, which gave him an estimated 14 of the state’s 45 pledged delegates. (Iowa also has 13 superdelegates, bringing its delegate total to 57.) That means about 20 percent of the delegates showing up to tomorrow’s convention were selected as Edwards delegates.
These Edwards delegates have two options. (Well, three.) They can switch their allegiance to Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, both of whom have been pushing hard for their support. Or, if they’re able to meet the 15 percent viability threshold, they can stick with Edwards. Presumably, many of them have switched allegiances since January, and others probably don’t know they’re allowed to vote for Edwards now that he’s out. But if enough of them back him, they could put his delegates—again, the equivalent of 14 national convention delegates—in play at the state convention on June 14.
And as the Democratic race drags on, 14 delegates is starting to look like a lot. The last primaries are scheduled for June 3. If the delegate count is somehow tied—a long shot, given Obama’s current lead, but still possible—then Edwards’ 14 delegates would play a major role. There's a certain poetry to Iowa bookending the election like that, no? (Or, if you're concerned about the democratic process, a certain perversity.)
Back to reality for a moment. The other reason delegates might stick with Edwards would be if they think his priorities, particularly poverty, haven’t been addressed sufficiently. It’s the same reason Edwards hasn’t endorsed yet: He’s waiting for one of the candidates to take up the cause with the same fervor he did. Until that happens, he has no incentive to pick sides. Likewise, the longer his delegates hold out, the more pressure they put on Clinton and Obama to take up Edwards’ mantle.
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A quick thought: Are any of the second-tier Democrats going to exceed 5 percent? As of now, Politico is showing Richardson at 2 percent, Biden at 1 percent, and Dodd, Kucinich, and Gravel at zero percent.
This doesn't mean only 2 percent of Iowans voted for Richardson and 1 percent for Gravel. These aren't popular-vote percentages we're seeing; it's the number of delegates assigned based on meetings where the candidates exceeded 15 percent. So, it's very probable that the top Dems are basically going to run the table. That doesn't show weakness among the second-tier, but weakness in the caucus system.
But average Americans watching CNN probably won't understand this. That means they'll think they're crazy to like the second-tier guys, since Iowans pooh-poohed them. Plus, the second-tier candidates now have to find a way to spin these low numbers and explain the caucuses to residents from other states. The average South Carolinian doesn't care about the nuances of caucus law—they just know Joe Biden only pulled in 1 percent or 2 percent in Iowa. Talk about not being viable.
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GRINNELL, Iowa—I swing by the groups caucusing for Biden and Richardson. A lonely female Biden supporter is looking for a sticker. “Do you guys have any stickers?” “I have a button,” says an old lady.
One Biden fan, Vera Cousins, says she doesn’t know who her second choice is. “It was going to be Chris Dodd, but he’s even lower.” Edwards or Obama will have to do, she says.
The Richardson folks say they expect to be viable in the second round, once supporters have gone to their second choices. A Obama supporter and Grinnell student, Greg Swanson, drifts over to chat with his Richardson-loving friends. I ask if they can stay friends after this. “We’re all Democrats here,” he says. “I saw an Edwards supporter sitting with his wife at the Hillary table.” I ask Swanson if the NRA hat he’s wearing is meant to be ironic. “Yes, it is,” he says.
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GRINNELL, Iowa—About 150 students have come in from out of town. Out of a student population of 1,500, 85 percent of whom are from outside Iowa, that’s not a whole lot. But since only a few hundred people are caucusing, the out-of-towners do make a difference. The school has opened up its gym, where they’ve laid out sleeping bags and blankets for the night.
One of them is Mikel Shybut, who’s here to support Obama. He drove over from Nebraska since “this might be the last chance I have” to caucus as first in the nation. I ask him if he thinks it’s unfair that one state is so influential. “Yeah. But since it’s my state, I’m not complaining.”
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DES MOINES – At a speech last night at Hoover High School, after nearly a year of breakneck campaigning, Barack Obama sounded tired. His voice was hoarse. He looked a little pale.
People were still screaming. But it felt like there was a disconnect between his words and the crowd’s reaction. Non-climactic lines were met with climactic cheering. The roar often drowned him out, emphasizing the disproportionality of it all. It’s like they were screaming not because Obama had made a compelling point, but because they wanted to scream.
In dozens of conversations with Iowa Democrats and undecideds over the past few days, it’s become clear to me that most people are going with their gut. John Edwards and Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have policy differences—which make for rhetorical battles about universal vs. non-universal health care or combat troops vs. non-combat troops—but they don't diverge enough to split Democrats ideologically. So most voters go with whoever appeals most viscerally. Edwards supporters enjoy his combative style. Hillary devotees admire her experience and competence. Obama fans love his talk about changing politics itself, whatever that means. People will agree or disagree with certain policies, but when you ask why they support Candidate X instead of Candidate Y, their answer is often, “I trust him,” or “I just like him.”
And that’s why, over the past few days, it’s been less about message than about turnout. The last Des Moines Register poll predicted higher turnout among independents than ever before—every single one of which is a potential Democratic supporter. (Some campaigns say the poll's estimate overshoots; tonight we’ll find out.) As a result, the Democratic candidates have held 195 events in Iowa since Monday, trying to clasp as many hands and look into as many faces as possible.
But even if one candidate wins by as many as, say, four percentage points, remember that’s just a few thousand Iowans. For all the hoopla surrounding this caucus (for which we are plenty guilty), any victory hailed as “decisive” is still just the result of a few thousand gut feelings. Of course, that’s democracy.